Wisconsin · District 4
Moore wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates WI-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+61.4, and 8 in 10 fall between D+49.7 and D+73.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Gwen Moore (D) vs. Tim Rogers (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+75EvenD+75
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Moore 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Moore 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Gwen Moore (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Moore's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Wisconsin
- Wisconsin 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
30
70
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
28
72
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026