Every change to the method, dated

October 12, 2026

• Daily forecasts begin, every Senate race and the House, updated once a day.

October 11, 2026

• The methods page now says plainly that each voter persona is a language model, and how many real people's answers sit behind the profiles.
• Two jobs listed on the methods page were not running yet, a weekly audit and a second reader for reactions and labels, so we took them off the list.
• This page and the track record page are now public. From October 12 the forecast code is frozen: any change to how the forecast is made is listed here with its date, and the old and new versions are both scored.

October 3, 2026

• The site opens with the list of races. Forecasts begin on October 12.