Michigan · District 1
Bergman wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MI-1 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+19.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+31.3 and R+7.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Callie Barr (D) vs. Jack Bergman (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Barr 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Barr 2 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Jack Bergman (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Barr's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Michigan
- Michigan 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
47
53
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
55
45
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
29
71
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
91
9
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026