New Mexico · District 3
Fernández wins 95 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NM-3 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+15.5, and 8 in 10 fall between D+3.8 and D+27.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Teresa Leger Fernández (D) vs. Martin Zamora (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Fernández 95 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Fernández 94 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Teresa Leger Fernandez (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Fernández's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New Mexico
- New Mexico 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
90
10
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Mexico 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026