Mississippi · District 3
Guest wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MS-3 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+27.2, and 8 in 10 fall between R+39.0 and R+15.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Michael Chiaradio (D) vs. Michael Guest (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Chiaradio 1 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Chiaradio 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Michael Guest (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Chiaradio's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Mississippi
- Mississippi 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Mississippi 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Mississippi 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026