Texas · District 28
Cuellar wins 68 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates TX-28 likely Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+2.5, and 8 in 10 fall between R+4.6 and D+9.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
68
32
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Henry Cuellar (D) vs. Tano Tijerina (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Cuellar 68 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Cuellar 63 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean D
- Incumbent
- Henry Cuellar (D)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Cuellar's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Texas
- Texas 34
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 15
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
10
90
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 38
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026