California · District 45
Tran wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates CA-45 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+12.9, and 8 in 10 fall between D+4.9 and D+20.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Derek Tran (D) vs. Chuong Vo (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Tran 97 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Tran 97 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely D
- Incumbent
- Derek Tran (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Tran's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in California
- California 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 48
DEM WINS
REP WINS
92
8
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026