North Carolina · District 3
Murphy wins 93 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NC-3 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+8.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+15.8 and R+1.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Raymond Smith Jr. (D) vs. Greg Murphy (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+20EvenD+20
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Jr. 7 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Jr. 6 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Greg Murphy (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Jr.'s chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in North Carolina
- North Carolina 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
39
61
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026