Alabama · District 1
Carl wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AL-1 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+29.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+41.3 and R+17.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Clyde Jones (D) vs. Jerry Carl (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Jones 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Jones 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Barry Moore (R), not running
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Jones's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Alabama
- Alabama 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
26
74
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026