New Jersey · District 11
Mejia wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NJ-11 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+19.0, and 8 in 10 fall between D+7.3 and D+30.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Analilia Mejia (D) vs. Joe Hathaway (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Mejia 97 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Mejia 97 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Analilia Mejia (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Mejia's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New Jersey
- New Jersey 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
64
36
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026