Virginia · District 4
McClellan wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates VA-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+42.7, and 8 in 10 fall between D+30.8 and D+54.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jennifer McClellan (D) vs. Robert Murray (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+55EvenD+55
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- McClellan 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- McClellan 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Jennifer McClellan (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
McClellan's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Virginia
- Virginia 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026