New Jersey · District 1
Norcross wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NJ-1 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+29.0, and 8 in 10 fall between D+17.1 and D+40.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Donald Norcross (D) vs. Damon Galdo (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Norcross 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Norcross 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Donald Norcross (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Norcross's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New Jersey
- New Jersey 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
64
36
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026