Kentucky · District 3
McGarvey wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates KY-3 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+29.1, and 8 in 10 fall between D+17.3 and D+40.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Morgan McGarvey (D) vs. Maria Rodriguez (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- McGarvey 99 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- McGarvey 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Morgan McGarvey (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
McGarvey's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Kentucky
- Kentucky 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026