New York · District 24
Tenney wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NY-24 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+21.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+32.9 and R+9.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Alissa Ellman (D) vs. Claudia Tenney (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Ellman 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Ellman 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Claudia Tenney (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Ellman's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New York
- New York 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
63
37
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
84
16
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 21
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026