Arizona · District 9
Gosar wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AZ-9 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+29.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+40.7 and R+17.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Danielle Sterbinsky (D) vs. Paul Gosar (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Sterbinsky 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Sterbinsky 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Paul Gosar (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Sterbinsky's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Arizona
- Arizona 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026