November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Kansas · District 2

Schmidt wins 97 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates KS-2 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+18.0, and 8 in 10 fall between R+29.7 and R+6.4.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

3

97

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Don Coover (D) vs. Derek Schmidt (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+30EvenD+30

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
Coover 3 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
Coover 3 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Safe R
Incumbent
Derek Schmidt (R)

Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.

Over time

Coover's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct3

Other seats in Kansas

  • Kansas 3

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    98

    2

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Kansas 4

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    2

    98

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Kansas 1

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    0

    100

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026