Minnesota · District 1
Finstad wins 91 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MN-1 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+7.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+14.4 and R+0.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
9
91
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jake Johnson (D) vs. Brad Finstad (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Johnson 9 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Johnson 9 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Brad Finstad (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Johnson's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Minnesota
- Minnesota 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026