Arkansas · District 2
Hill wins 96 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AR-2 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+10.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+17.4 and R+3.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Chris Jones (D) vs. French Hill (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+20EvenD+20
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Jones 4 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Jones 3 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- French Hill (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Jones's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Arkansas
- Arkansas 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arkansas 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arkansas 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026