Kentucky · District 6
Alvarado wins 85 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates KY-6 likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+5.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+12.3 and D+1.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Zach Dembo (D) vs. Ralph Alvarado (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Dembo 15 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Dembo 15 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean R
- Incumbent
- Andy Barr (R), not running
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Dembo's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Kentucky
- Kentucky 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026