North Carolina · District 8
Harris wins 95 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NC-8 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+16.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+28.0 and R+4.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Colby Watson (D) vs. Mark Harris (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Watson 5 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Watson 4 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Mark Harris (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Watson's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in North Carolina
- North Carolina 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
39
61
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026