New York · District 19
Riley wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NY-19 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+12.1, and 8 in 10 fall between D+4.1 and D+20.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Josh Riley (D) vs. Peter Oberacker (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Riley 97 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Riley 96 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely D
- Incumbent
- Josh Riley (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Riley's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New York
- New York 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
63
37
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
84
16
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 21
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026