Oklahoma · District 4
Cole wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates OK-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+31.5, and 8 in 10 fall between R+43.1 and R+19.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Mitchell Jacob (D) vs. Tom Cole (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Jacob 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Jacob 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Tom Cole (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Jacob's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Oklahoma
- Oklahoma 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026