California · District 22
Villegas wins 60 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates CA-22 lean Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+1.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+5.9 and D+8.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Randy Villegas (D) vs. David Valadao (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Villegas 60 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Villegas 57 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean D
- Incumbent
- David Valadao (R)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Villegas's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in California
- California 48
DEM WINS
REP WINS
92
8
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 39
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026