New York · District 6
Meng wins 96 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NY-6 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+16.8, and 8 in 10 fall between D+5.0 and D+28.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Grace Meng (D) vs. Joseph Chou (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Meng 96 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Meng 95 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Grace Meng (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Meng's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New York
- New York 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
63
37
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
84
16
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 21
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026