Indiana · District 1
Mrvan wins 95 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates IN-1 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+10.8, and 8 in 10 fall between D+2.7 and D+18.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Frank Mrvan (D) vs. Barb Regnitz (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+20EvenD+20
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Mrvan 95 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Mrvan 94 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely D
- Incumbent
- Frank Mrvan (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Mrvan's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Indiana
- Indiana 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
10
90
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026