November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Utah · District 1

McAdams wins 100 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates UT-1 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+40.6, and 8 in 10 fall between D+32.0 and D+49.3.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

100

0

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Ben McAdams (D) vs. Riley Owen (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+50EvenD+50

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
McAdams 100 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
McAdams 100 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Safe D
Incumbent
Blake Moore (R), not running

Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.

Over time

McAdams's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct100

Other seats in Utah

  • Utah 2

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    5

    95

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Utah 4

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    1

    99

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Utah 3

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    0

    100

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026