New Jersey · District 3
Conaway wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NJ-3 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+18.7, and 8 in 10 fall between D+6.9 and D+30.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Herb Conaway (D) vs. Michael McGuire (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Conaway 97 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Conaway 97 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Herb Conaway (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Conaway's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New Jersey
- New Jersey 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
64
36
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Jersey 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026