Florida · District 5
Rutherford wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates FL-5 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+18.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+29.8 and R+6.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Rachel Grage (D) vs. John Rutherford (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Grage 3 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Grage 3 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- John Rutherford (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Grage's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Florida
- Florida 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 25
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 16
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
14
86
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026