Pennsylvania · District 15
Thompson wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates PA-15 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+35.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+47.6 and R+24.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Ray Bilger (D) vs. Glenn Thompson (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+50EvenD+50
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Bilger 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Bilger 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Glenn Thompson (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Bilger's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Pennsylvania
- Pennsylvania 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
43
57
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
20
80
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026