Kentucky · District 5
Rogers wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates KY-5 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+61.5, and 8 in 10 fall between R+73.2 and R+49.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Ned Pillersdorf (D) vs. Hal Rogers (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+75EvenD+75
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Pillersdorf 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Pillersdorf 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Hal Rogers (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Pillersdorf's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Kentucky
- Kentucky 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026