Missouri · District 3
Onder wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MO-3 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+23.6, and 8 in 10 fall between R+35.4 and R+11.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Bethany Mann (D) vs. Bob Onder (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Mann 1 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Mann 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Bob Onder (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Mann's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Missouri
- Missouri 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026