New York · District 18
Ryan wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NY-18 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+15.0, and 8 in 10 fall between D+8.0 and D+22.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Pat Ryan (D) vs. Jacqueline Auringer (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Ryan 99 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Ryan 99 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Pat Ryan (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Ryan's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New York
- New York 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
63
37
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
84
16
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 21
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026