Arizona · District 7
Grijalva wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AZ-7 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+32.3, and 8 in 10 fall between D+20.4 and D+44.1.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Adelita Grijalva (D) vs. Daniel Butierez (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Grijalva 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Grijalva 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Adelita Grijalva (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Grijalva's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Arizona
- Arizona 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026