Michigan · District 7
Lawrence wins 55 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MI-7 lean Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+0.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+6.4 and D+7.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
55
45
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
William Lawrence (D) vs. Tom Barrett (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Lawrence 55 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Lawrence 52 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Tom Barrett (R)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Lawrence's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Michigan
- Michigan 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
47
53
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
29
71
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
91
9
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026