Maryland · District 3
Elfreth wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MD-3 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+34.2, and 8 in 10 fall between D+22.6 and D+46.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Sarah Elfreth (D) vs. Berney Flowers (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+50EvenD+50
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Elfreth 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Elfreth 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Sarah Elfreth (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Elfreth's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Maryland
- Maryland 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026