November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Kansas · District 3

Davids wins 98 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates KS-3 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+14.5, and 8 in 10 fall between D+6.5 and D+22.4.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

98

2

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Sharice Davids (D) vs. Eric Jenkins (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+25EvenD+25

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
Davids 98 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
Davids 98 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Safe D
Incumbent
Sharice Davids (D)

Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.

Over time

Davids's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct98

Other seats in Kansas

  • Kansas 2

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    3

    97

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Kansas 4

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    2

    98

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Kansas 1

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    0

    100

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026