Florida · District 14
Castor wins 59 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates FL-14 lean Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+1.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+6.0 and D+8.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Castor 59 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Castor 55 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Kathy Castor (D)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Castor's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Florida
- Florida 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 25
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 16
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
14
86
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026