Massachusetts · District 4
Auchincloss wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MA-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+29.9, and 8 in 10 fall between D+18.1 and D+41.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jake Auchincloss (D) vs. Tom Stalcup (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Auchincloss 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Auchincloss 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Jake Auchincloss (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Auchincloss's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Massachusetts
- Massachusetts 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Massachusetts 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Massachusetts 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Massachusetts 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026