North Carolina · District 1
Davis wins 52 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NC-1 a toss-up. The middle simulated result is D+0.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+6.6 and D+7.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Don Davis (D) vs. Laurie Buckhout (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Davis 52 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Davis 49 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Don Davis (D)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Davis's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in North Carolina
- North Carolina 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
39
61
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026