Arkansas · District 1
Crawford wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AR-1 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+43.5, and 8 in 10 fall between R+55.0 and R+31.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Terri Yarbrough Green (D) vs. Rick Crawford (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+60EvenD+60
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Green 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Green 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Rick Crawford (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Green's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Arkansas
- Arkansas 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arkansas 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arkansas 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026