Connecticut · District 1
Bronin wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates CT-1 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+28.6, and 8 in 10 fall between D+16.8 and D+40.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Luke Bronin (D) vs. Amy Chai (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Bronin 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Bronin 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- John Larson (D), not running
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Bronin's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Connecticut
- Connecticut 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Connecticut 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Connecticut 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Connecticut 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026