Minnesota · District 5
Omar wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MN-5 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+72.3, and 8 in 10 fall between D+60.5 and D+84.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Ilhan Omar (D) vs. John Nagel (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+85EvenD+85
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Omar 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Omar 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Ilhan Omar (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Omar's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Minnesota
- Minnesota 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
9
91
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026