Washington · District 3
Perez wins 78 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates WA-3 likely Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+4.2, and 8 in 10 fall between R+3.0 and D+11.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
78
22
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) vs. John Braun (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Perez 78 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Perez 74 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean D
- Incumbent
- Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Perez's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Washington
- Washington 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
11
89
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026