Washington · District 4
McKinney wins 94 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates WA-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+14.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+26.5 and R+3.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
John Duresky (D) vs. Amanda McKinney (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Duresky 6 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Duresky 6 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Dan Newhouse (R), not running
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Duresky's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Washington
- Washington 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
78
22
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
11
89
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026