New York · District 3
Suozzi wins 84 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NY-3 likely Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+6.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+1.9 and D+14.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
84
16
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Tom Suozzi (D) vs. Mike LiPetri (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Suozzi 84 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Suozzi 80 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely D
- Incumbent
- Tom Suozzi (D)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Suozzi's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New York
- New York 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
63
37
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 21
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026