November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Iowa · District 3

Nunn wins 72 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates IA-3 likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+3.2, and 8 in 10 fall between R+10.6 and D+4.2.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

28

72

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Sarah Trone Garriott (D) vs. Zach Nunn (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+15EvenD+15

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
Garriott 28 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
Garriott 28 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Lean D
Incumbent
Zach Nunn (R)

Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.

Over time

Garriott's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct28

Other seats in Iowa

  • Iowa 2

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    33

    67

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Iowa 1

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    31

    69

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Iowa 4

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    1

    99

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026