Minnesota · District 6
Emmer wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MN-6 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+18.0, and 8 in 10 fall between R+29.8 and R+6.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Doug Chapin (D) vs. Tom Emmer (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Chapin 3 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Chapin 3 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Tom Emmer (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Chapin's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Minnesota
- Minnesota 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
9
91
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Minnesota 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026