Alaska · At-large district
III wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AK-AL safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+35.5, and 8 in 10 fall between R+42.5 and R+28.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Eric Hafner (D) vs. Nick Begich III (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Hafner 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Hafner 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Nick Begich (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Hafner's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026