Missouri · District 5
Cleaver wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MO-5 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+31.9, and 8 in 10 fall between D+20.2 and D+43.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Emanuel Cleaver (D) vs. Rick Brattin (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Cleaver 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Cleaver 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Emanuel Cleaver (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Cleaver's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Missouri
- Missouri 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026