Tennessee · District 5
Hatcher wins 96 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates TN-5 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+11.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+20.2 and R+3.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Chaz Molder (D) vs. Charlie Hatcher (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Molder 4 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Molder 4 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Andy Ogles (R), not running
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Molder's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Tennessee
- Tennessee 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026